Variations on Operation Sea Lion

Operation Sea Lion:

Using Alternate history to try to figure out the whole Sea Lion thing

Introductory Notes

I love “what if” fiction. I love to read theories on how Operation Sea Lion could have worked, and then I like to theorize on ways to make that happen while playing Axis and Allies.

Could Operation Sea Lion really have worked?

According to most of what I’ve read, the answer is a pretty simple “No.” Germany faced far too many challenges – how to gain naval superiority, how to gain air superiority, how to transport the invasion force and that much equipment, and finally, how to actually win if and when the invasion force commenced.

To make Sea Lion even less likely, it is important to note that the problems weren’t simply a matter of the right strategy, but were compounded by the actual will or desire to fight this fight. Many accounts point out that Germany never seriously planned to invade, and had no desire to. Hitler’s overwhelming desire was to attack USSR, not UK. It is also pointed out that Hitler continued to believe for far too long that Britain would eventually surrender and that no invasion would ever be necessary.

In 1974 Britain conducted a series of war-games designed to determine what might have happened had Germany chosen to attempt Sea Lion. The end results were Germany losing.

Read about it here: Operation Sea Lion War-game

So in general, most believe that even with an earlier attack, German success at an invasion would have been a long-shot at best.   

What good is a simple “No?”

For fiction and for playing Axis and Allies, the simple “no” answer doesn’t offer much help.

Despite historical realities, I have very little problem with Operation Sea Lion working in “what if” scenarios. They are always fun to read. What I am most interested in, is reading the explanation as to why Germany ends up more successful.

In other stories I’ve read, Germany is often successful because they launch Sea Lion earlier than planned (or possible) so UK is less prepared, or Germany succeeds because their buildup to the war in general was different, or there is some alternate disaster that allows greater success.

How to use this while playing the various Axis and Allies games:

There are basically two ways to make Sea Lion happen. Variation 1 is to attack early (and often). Variation 2 is to have a longer buildup that allows a larger more decisive attack in a late round.

Variation 1:

Round 1 Germany must:

Destroy all UK naval units and open a path for transports to reach UK. Go all in and build only navy. Position air force during non-combat so as strong a force as possible will be within reach of UK on Round 2.

Then, starting in Round 2, they must attempt Sea Lion and continue for as long as possible. This is an “all in” approach where Germany ignores USSR and MUST win the game by defeating UK. Ok, plans can change, but you know what I mean.

Problems with Variation 1:

UK can usually spend enough on defensive units to defeat Germany. Germany will leave itself too weak to defend itself against an invading USSR.

In most games a Round 2 Sea Lion won’t be successful. But, it is very exciting to try and if a few lucky dice rolls happen, the game can be over before it really begins. And, if UK isn’t paying attention of mishandles its defense, Germany can reattempt this maneuver for several rounds in a row and have multiple chances.

Axis and Allies 1940 allows for several attempts at Sea Lion before USSR or USA are even in the war, so this can be a very fun strategy to attempt.

Variation 2:

Germany tries to hide its plans and builds in such a way as to deflect attention away from a possible attack.

This usually means that Germany spreads its spending and attacks and focuses on Africa, USSR, as well as adding small amounts of navy along the way. Germany must hope the UK player does not build a proper defense. Germany can save IPCs from round 1 to spend right when the time is right. Navy can be built in the Danish / Baltic Sea space as well as the Mediterranean.

It is a great feeling when Germany has a large navy near Gibraltar and UK is fooled into thinking that Germany is focused on North Africa, only to have Germany suddenly sneak attack.

In AA 1940 – Italy can be of great assistance.

Proper coordination is crucial: Italy attacks first so that Germany gets to have a follow-up attack before UK can build new units. Italian air force can clear an ocean route for German transports. If the Italian navy survives, they too can help weaken UK or perhaps take UK themselves.

Proper construction and timing are paramount for this strategy to succeed. Best case scenario is to catch an opponent off guard and win in one large-scale attack as opposed to several rounds of back-and-forth battles.

Problems with Variation 2:

Too many things can go wrong.

Where does the attack come from? Did Germany build properly to both attack and defend? Has UK built a proper defense? Has USSR successfully attacked?

In AA 1940 – is USA in the war and now helping to defend?

Other Gameplay Variations

I reviewed “The Little Admiral” here and plan to review “Disaster at Dunkirk” soon. Both stories can be found in the book "Third Reich Victorious," along with several other alt-history scenarios.

Both of these stories provide insight into how things could have easily been different and how important the small moments are. These stories also present ideas that are fairly simple to apply to AA gameplay as well.

 "The Little Admiral” creates a world where Hitler’s primary focus was the navy, not the military. 

It is easy to use this concept as a building strategy in the game. Germany simply builds navy. But this leaves Germany too weak in the fight against USSR.

For alternative setups and house rules, it is easy to start the game with additional German naval units already in place on the board. Numbers can be adjusted to allow for more even gameplay. One method is to trade in land units for an equal value of sea units. This way, while Germany becomes more powerful at sea, they become weaker in Europe – UK may fall more easily, but USSR will have an easier time of things. 

“Disaster at Dunkirk” alters history so the British are not able to evacuate from Dunkirk.

This change leaves UK less prepared, missing men and equipment, and allows a situation where Germany can successfully prepare to invade UK.

In Axis and Allied 1940, France is divided into three territories and Germany there are British units in France. An easy way to play this scenario would be to have these British units removed from the board without a fight as soon as Germany successfully captures Paris. Not only does this weaken UK, but it spares Germany from losing any units through battle. While this is a very minor change in the game, a few extra units can have a surprising effect on later battles.